Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Policy Framework 1
1.3 Mitigation versus Adaptation 2
1.4 Comparative Vulnerability of the CoJ 3
2. METHODOLOGY 4
2.1 Risk Assessment Methodology 4
2.2 Climate Modelling Methodology 5
3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE COJ 6
3.1 Geography of the CoJ 6
3.2 Current Climate 7
3.3 Temperature 8
3.3.1 Current Trends in Temperature 8
3.3.2 Future Trends in Temperature 9
3.3.3 Extreme Temperature 10
3.4 Precipitation 15
3.4.1 Current Trends in Precipitation 15
3.4.2 Future Trends in Precipitation 16
3.4.3 Extreme Precipitation 18
3.5 Other Climatic Variables 22
3.5.1 Evapotranspiration 22
3.5.2 Humidity 22
3.5.3 High Pressure Cell 22
3.5.4 Wind, Hail, Lightning and other Weather-related Events 22
4. VULNERABILITIES OF COJ KEY SECTORS 24
4.1 Introduction 24
4.2 Environment 24
4.2.1 Introduction 24
4.2.2 Air Quality 24
4.2.3 Natural Water Resources 25
4.2.4 Biodiversity 26
4.3 Health 27
4.4 Infrastructure 27
4.4.1 Stormwater 27
4.4.2 Water Supply & Sanitation 29
4.4.3 Transport 30
4.4.4 Energy, Electrical and Telecommunications 30
4.4.5 Built and Urban Environment 32
4.5 Disaster Management 33
4.6 Finance & Economy 33
4.7 Community Development & Livelihood 34
4.7.1 Climate Change and Urban Poverty 34
4.7.2 Employment 35
4.7.3 Housing and Living Environment 35
4.7.4 Food Security 36
4.7.5 Water Security 37
4.7.6 Migration 38
5. RISK ASSESSMENT 40
5.1 Introduction 40
5.2 Risk Assessment Framework 40
5.2.1 Risk Identification 40
5.2.2 Risk Prioritising 40
5.3 Risks due to Changes in Temperature 42
5.4 Risks Due to Changes in Precipitation 45
5.5 Risks Arising from Climate Change Impacts outside the CoJ Boundaries 48
5.6 Risks Due to Changes in Other Synoptic & Climatic Variables 50
5.7 Summary 52
6. KEY FINDINGS - HIGH PRIORITY RISKS 53
6.1 Introduction 53
6.2 Risk T1: Increase in Heat-Related Death 53
6.3 Risk T2: Increase in Energy Demand 56
6.4 Risk TP4: Biodiversity Impacts on Disease Vectors - Health Risks 58
6.5 Risks P1 - P4: Increased Risk of Urban Flooding 60
6.6 Risks X1 & T3: Disruption to Water Security 65
6.7 Risk X2: Climate Change-driven Refugees and Migrants 68
7. ADAPTATION ACTIONS FOR CoJ 69
7.1 Introduction 69
7.2 The Cost of Adaptations 70
7.2.1 Introduction 70
7.2.2 Methodology 71
7.2.3 Future Assessment of Costs and Benefits 71
7.3 Adaptations for High Priority Risks 72
7.3.1 Risk T1: Increase in Heat-Related Death 72
7.3.2 Risk T2: Increase in Energy Demand 73
7.3.3 Risk TP4: Biodiversity Impacts on Disease Vectors - Health Risks 74
7.3.4 Risks P1 - P4: Increased Risk of Urban Flooding 75
7.3.5 Risks X1 & T3: Disruption to Water Security 78
7.3.6 Risk X2: Climate Change-driven Refugees and Migrants 80
7.4 Strategic Adaptations 81
7.5 Summary of Key Adaptations 84