Forecast for secondary raw materials

This report describes the implementation and results of a pilot project, which includes method development and preparation of a forecast for the expected production of recyclable (secondary) raw materials in Høje-Taastrup and Roskilde municipalities (concrete and bricks from buildings, as well as concrete, asphalt and gravel from paving). as a result of demolition and renovation projects.
There is no knowledge of available, recognized forecasts for secondary raw materials or knowledge of documented methods for preparing forecasts for the production of secondary raw materials. Therefore, method development has been an important part of the pilot project and the goal has thus been to develop and test a generic method which, at municipal level, can be used to prepare forecasts for secondary raw materials, in the form of construction and demolition waste that is generated. by demolition of buildings and pavements.
The three elements - the municipalities' planning material, historical experiences of previously completed demolition / renovations and knowledge of the existing building and construction mass - have been chosen as a data basis for input to a forecast model (calculations and GIS tools) and have formed the basis for preparation of a forecast for the quantities of the secondary raw materials that can be expected to be produced in the municipalities in the next 12 years.
The forecast thus indicates quantities, time frame and geographical location of the resources that are expected to be brought on the market as a result of demolition activities, etc. With this forecast, new knowledge and transparency have been created, which can contribute to access to secondary raw materials being included to a greater extent in the regional raw material planning and in the planning of specific building and construction projects.

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Associated spaces

Høje-Taastrup , Roskilde

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