The Second Generation Vaal Triangle Airshed Priority Area Air Quality Management Plan: Draft Baseline Assessment Report

Table of Contents
1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Output B: Baseline Assessment Report .................................................................................................................2
1.1.1 Activity B1: Background Assessment ................................................................................................................2
1.1.2 Activity B2: Emission inventory..........................................................................................................................4
1.1.3 Activity B3: Ambient Air Quality Assessment.....................................................................................................4
1.1.4 Activity B4: Dispersion Modelling and Scenario Assessment............................................................................4
1.2 Report Outline ........................................................................................................................................................5
2 Legislation and Regulatory Requirements .......................................................................................................................6
2.1 National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act (Act No.39) of 2004 ...........................................................6
2.1.1 National Ambient Air Quality Standards ............................................................................................................7
2.1.2 National Dust Control Regulations.....................................................................................................................7
2.1.3 Section 21 – Listed activities .............................................................................................................................8
2.1.4 Section 23 – Controlled Emitters .......................................................................................................................8
2.1.5 Reporting of Atmospheric Emissions.................................................................................................................9
2.1.6 Atmospheric Impact Report ...............................................................................................................................9
2.1.7 Regulations Regarding Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling ...............................................................................9
2.2 Air Quality Management Plan Implementation .....................................................................................................10
3 Geography and Demographics ......................................................................................................................................11
4 Regional Climate and Atmospheric Dispersion Conditions ............................................................................................16
4.1 Surface Wind Field ...............................................................................................................................................17
4.2 Temperature .........................................................................................................................................................17
4.3 Rainfall..................................................................................................................................................................18
5 Baseline Characterisation ..............................................................................................................................................22
5.1 Emission Sources.................................................................................................................................................22
5.1.1 Industrial Sources ............................................................................................................................................22
5.1.2 Mining Sources ................................................................................................................................................25
5.1.3 Mobile Sources ................................................................................................................................................28
5.1.4 Domestic Fuel Burning ....................................................................................................................................41
5.1.5 Waste...............................................................................................................................................................50
5.1.6 Windblown Particulate Emissions....................................................................................................................54
5.1.7 Biogenic VOC emissions .................................................................................................................................56
5.1.8 Biomass Burning..............................................................................................................................................59
5.1.9 Airfields ............................................................................................................................................................64
5.1.10 Other Pollutants Included for Dispersion Modelling Chemistry Effects – Ammonia Emissions ..................64
5.2 Existing Air Quality Monitoring..............................................................................................................................68
5.2.1 Ambient Air Quality Monitoring in VTAPA........................................................................................................68
5.2.2 Long-term Air Quality Data Trends ..................................................................................................................68
5.3 Air quality model simulations ................................................................................................................................99
5.3.1 Emissions input..............................................................................................................................................100
5.3.2 Meteorological modelling ...............................................................................................................................100
5.3.3 Initial and boundary conditions ......................................................................................................................109
5.3.4 Photolysis rates .............................................................................................................................................110
5.3.5 Source tracking..............................................................................................................................................111
5.3.6 CAMx model run specifics .............................................................................................................................111
5.3.7 Results...........................................................................................................................................................111
5.4 VTAPA 2013 Health Study .................................................................................................................................143
5.4.1 Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA)......................................................................................................143
5.4.2 Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................................................146
5.4.3 Community Study ..........................................................................................................................................148
5.4.4 Child Health Study .........................................................................................................................................148
5.5 VTAPA Source Apportionment Study.................................................................................................................150
6 Main Findings and the Way Forward............................................................................................................................151
6.1 Geography and Demographics...........................................................................................................................151
6.2 Regional Climate and Existing Ambient Air Quality ............................................................................................151
6.3 VTAPA Emissions ..............................................................................................................................................152
6.3.1 Synopsis of VTAPA Emissions ......................................................................................................................153
6.4 Dispersion Model................................................................................................................................................157
6.4.1 Summary of findings ......................................................................................................................................157
6.5 Conclusions from the VTAPA Health Study .......................................................................................................158
6.6 Preliminary findings on the VTAPA Source Apportionment Study .....................................................................159
6.7 Way Forward ......................................................................................................................................................159
7 References...................................................................................................................................................................160
8 Appendix A – Long-term Ambient Air Quality Detailed Compliance Tables.................................................................165
9 Appendix B – Time-series plots of model vs measured concentrations.......................................................................184
10 Appendix C – Time averaged concentration maps for the parent model domain (i.e. 3km resolution)........................233

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