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Small islands

Current and future climate-related drivers of risk for small islands during the 21st century include sea level rise (SLR), tropical and extratropical cyclones, increasing air and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns (high confidence; robust evidence, high agreement). {WGI AR5 Chapter 14; Table 29-1} Current impacts associated with these changes confirm findings reported on small islands from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and previous IPCC assessments. The future risks associated with these drivers include loss of adaptive capacity {29.6.2.1, 29.6.2.3} and ecosystem services critical to lives and livelihoods in small islands. {29.3.1-3}SLR poses one of the most widely recognized climate change threats to low-lying coastal areas on islands and atolls (high confidence; robust evidence, high agreement). {29.3.1} It is virtually certain that global mean SLR rates are accelerating. {WGI AR5 13.2.2.1} Projected increases to the year 2100 (RCP4.5: 0.35 m to 0.70 m) {WGI AR5 13.5.1; Table 29-1} superimposed on extreme sea level events (e.g., swell waves, storm surges, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) present severe sea flood and erosion risks for low-lying coastal areas and atoll islands (high confidence). Likewise, there is high confidence that wave over-wash of seawater will degrade fresh groundwater resources {29.3.2} and that sea surface temperature rise will result in increased coral bleaching and reef degradation. {29.3.1.2} Given the dependence of island communities on coral reef ecosystems for a range of services including coastal protection, subsistence fisheries, and tourism, there is high confidence that coral reef ecosystem degradation will negatively impact island communities and livelihoods.Given the inherent physical characteristics of small islands, the AR5 reconfirms the high level of vulnerability of small islands to multiple stressors, both climate and non-climate (high confidence; robust evidence, high agreement). However, the distinction between observed and projected impacts of climate change is often not clear in the literature on small islands (high agreement). {29.3} There is evidence that this challenge can be partly overcome through improvements in baseline monitoring of island systems and downscaling of climate- model projections, which would heighten confidence in assessing recent and projected impacts. {WGI AR5 9.6; 29.3-4, 29.9}Small islands do not have uniform climate change risk profiles (high confidence). Rather, their high diversity in both physical and human attributes and their response to climate-related drivers means that climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation will be variable from one island region to another and between countries in the same region. {Figure 29-1; Table 29-3} In the past, this diversity in potential response has not always been adequately integrated in adaptation planning.There is increasing recognition of the risks to small islands from climate-related processes originating well beyond the borders of an individual nation or island. Such transboundary processes already have a negative impact on small islands (high confidence; robust evidence, medium agreement). These include air-borne dust from the Sahara and Asia, distant-source ocean swells from mid to high latitudes, invasive plant and animal species, and the spread of aquatic pathogens. For island communities the risks associated with existing and future invasive species and human health challenges are projected to increase in a changing climate. {29.5.4}Adaptation to climate change generates larger benefit to small islands when delivered in conjunction with other development activities, such as disaster risk reduction and community-based approaches to development (medium confidence). {29.6.4} Addressing the critical social, economic, and environmental issues of the day, raising awareness, and communicating future risks to local communities {29.6.3} will likely increase human and environmental resilience to the longer term impacts of climate change. {29.6.1, 29.6.2.3; Figure 29-5}Adaptation and mitigation on small islands are not always trade-offs, but can be regarded as complementary components in the response to climate change (medium confidence). Examples of adaptation-mitigation interlinkages in small islands include energy supply and use, tourism infrastructure and activities, and functions and services associated with coastal wetlands. The alignment of these sectors for potential emission reductions, together with adaptation, offer co-benefits and opportunities in some small islands. {29.7.2, 29.8} Lessons learned from adaptation and mitigation experiences in one island may offer some guidance to other small island states, though there is low confidence in the success of wholesale transfer of adaptation and mitigation options when the local lenses through which they are viewed differ from one island state to the next, given the diverse cultural, socioeconomic, ecological, and political values. {29.6.2, 29.8}The ability of small islands to undertake adaptation and mitigation programs, and their effectiveness, can be substantially strengthened through appropriate assistance from the international community (medium confidence). However, caution is needed to ensure such assistance is not driving the climate change agenda in small islands, as there is a risk that critical challenges confronting island governments and communities may not be addressed. Opportunities for effective adaptation can be found by, for example, empowering communities and optimizing the benefits of local practices that have proven to be efficacious through time, and working synergistically to progress development agendas. {29.6.2.3, 29.6.3, 29.8}

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